Martin Tyler's Letter From The Gantry No 28
From The Joy Of Football podcast No 30 in praise of headed goals
Opta’s compiling of statistics and the subsequent interpretation of the facts and figures is unique in football, and there is not a commentator working today who has not been grateful for having access to their science and skills.
We have our differences, amicably debated, such as the use of the word ‘touch’ in what some, including me, believe should be identified differently – as ‘involvements’, for example.
A top dribbler like Everton’s Iliman Ndiaye takes on opponents in the penalty area making contact with the ball half-a-dozen times. Opta records that whole episode of play as one touch for the attacker. It would be much clearer if it was noted as one involvement. Why?
Because when a striker brings the ball down in one movement and then with a second contact puts it in the net it is categorised as a two-touch finish. Yet that moment will go down on the scorer’s stats as one touch in the penalty area. Confusing!! Easily solved with not using the word ‘touch’ in two very different contexts.
I also think if a player wins a penalty and it is successfully converted, the earner of the spot-kick should get an assist. I do understand Opta’s counter that there is a problem if the scorer is the same player as the one who has been fouled. A scorer getting an assist on his or her goal would take a bit of getting used to but it is an accurate summing up of those situations.
Anyway, after the first seven rounds of the Premier League season – so not including last weekend – Opta as usual has come up with some intriguing stats from the top-flight action up to that point. As a one-time non-League number 9, I have always been fascinated by data on headed goals.
Even though top level football seems much more possession based, last season when of course there was a record number of Premier League goals, 1246, 203 were scored by headers, the most since the famous 2011-12 campaign. Do you recall Eden Dzeko, often forgotten in discussions on this historic occasion, making it 2-2 on the final day with a fine header to pave the way for Sergio Aguero’s game-winner, title-winner, for Manchester City?
But this season in the first 70 games there have been only 29 goals with headers – that’s down from 0.53 per game to 0.41. I have taken it one step further to the percentage of headers in total goals. Last season, in that record number of 1246, 16 percent were headers. Now we have 29 out of 201, down to 14 percent. Forgive me, Opta, for rounding up my figures
Top notch in this category last season were Arsenal with 17 headed goals – the set-pieces were already working. Relegated Luton, with great service from the likes of Andros Townsend and Alfie Doughty, managed 15 such goals, West Ham 14.
At the bottom of the list were the other two relegated clubs, Burnley with five and Sheffield United three. In between Crystal Palace, who finished 10th in the League table, managed just four headed goals
This season – again a reminder that this is prior to the latest round of games – Brighton and Aston Villa lead with four apiece. But six of the elite 20 did not find the net with a header in their first seven games. Crystal Palace, Fulham, Ipswich, Manchester City, Newcastle, and Wolves. Fulham and City had 18 headed attempts without scoring. Villa managed four goals from just 10 aerial efforts.
It is a smallish sample and too early for a trend. But it is worth an early investigation. Is the shortage of the traditional number 9s a reason? Are the crosses not coming in from the best wide positions for headers because of the preference for inverted wingers? We have all seen some splendid goalkeeping this season. Could that be an explanation?
Do not underestimate the influence of data. I was a guest at a London Universities event last week alongside the excellent and eloquent Brighton CEO and Deputy Chairman Paul Barber. In the world of heavy spending and debt management The Seagulls have actually made a profit in the last two seasons, in 2022-23 a record £122.8m.
Part of that comes from selling some of their best players – and indeed a manager and back room staff in the case of Graham Potter to Chelsea. The club’s recruitment policy, based on a unique algorithm, saw Marc Cucurella, Leandro Trossard, Yves Bissouma and Alexis Mac Allister arrive on the South Coast for relatively small fees but leave for much, much bigger money. The likes of Moisés Caicedo and Robert Sánchez were similarly moved on in highly profitable deals done in the following tax year. Those increased values of course are boosted by performances on the pitch. In the football season alongside that record tax year Brighton finished sixth and qualified for the Europa League.
The students on business courses were fascinated – and rightly so. Twenty years ago, al-go rhythm could have been a description of Shearer on the dance floor. (Think about it!!)
Now it is the key to success. The Seagulls are still defying the odds – and with four of their first 13 Premier League goals – 30 percent – from the aerial route, they yet again have made a head start.
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